![]() For its part, Addis Ababa has procured more military hardware from abroad to better arm and equip its new recruits as they try to regain the upper hand in the conflict. The Tigray leadership, emboldened by their military resurgence, and unwilling to accept either the federal blockade of Tigray or occupation of western Tigray by their historical northern rivals, the Amhara, are geared up to keep fighting. Moreover, opposition to the Tigray advances has also helped the federal government enlist fresh forces, setting the stage for its own military push in October, although that appears to have sputtered, allowing the Tigray forces to gain more ground in eastern Amhara as they counter-attacked.ĭespite probably tens of thousands of fatalities, both sides remain committed to war. But resistance from local militias and regular forces has thus far stymied some of the Tigray leaders’ plans, including their bid to take back western Tigray, which is administered by Amhara’s government backed by Eritrean and Ethiopian soldiers. The Tigray offensive has uprooted at least 450,000 people in Afar and Amhara. Tigray forces are fighting to reopen aid channels to the region, which Addis Ababa has largely blocked, remove security threats and recapture territory that they have lost in the conflict and not yet reclaimed. There is no end to Ethiopia’s instability in sight. Donors, neighbours and others should back his efforts. While the parties are not yet ready to talk, when they are, African Union (AU) regional envoy Olusegun Obasanjo will be best positioned to broker a choreographed de-escalation leading to a ceasefire that can help stabilise an increasingly fragile Ethiopia. Insurgents in Oromia region have allied with Tigray. It may embroil Sudan if Tigray’s encircled forces seek an external supply line. The conflict could draw in other parties, too. Meanwhile, Addis Ababa has renewed restrictions on aid headed into Tigray, deepening famine conditions there, and has also been buying arms, recruiting tens of thousands of fighters and, most recently, launching a new campaign to reverse Tigray’s gains. They remain set on reclaiming Tigray’s west from Amhara control. The Tigray forces then advanced into the adjacent regions of Amhara and, temporarily, Afar, causing mass displacement. On the back foot since hostilities erupted in November 2020, the Tigray region’s forces recovered, compelling federal and allied Eritrean troops to retreat in June. The war in northern Ethiopia grinds on and is likely to worsen. Tigray leaders should freeze their offensive as Addis Ababa unblocks aid and services to the region. ![]() What should be done? International partners should back former Nigerian President Olusegun Obasanjo, the new African Union envoy to the Horn, in seeking a choreographed de-escalation of the conflict and demilitarisation of the flashpoint area of western Tigray. Combined with an insurgency in the Oromia region and economic challenges, the situation could trigger a collapse in federal authority that would roil the Horn of Africa. Why does it matter? Continued fighting will further destabilise Ethiopia and could draw in Sudan if Tigray forces seek to reclaim western Tigray from Amhara control. Although their offensive has galvanised resistance, especially in the neighbouring Amhara region, Tigray forces have recently made new gains, increasing the pressure on Addis Ababa. Since June, the Tigray region’s forces have turned the tables on the federal military and its allies. What’s new? Ethiopia’s devastating civil war has worsened and broadened. Middle East & North Africa View Program.Turkey’s PKK Conflict: A Visual Explainer.The Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict: A Visual Explainer.Conflict in Ukraine’s Donbas: A Visual Explainer.The Climate Factor in Nigeria’s Farmer-Herder Violence.How Climate Change Fuels Deadly Conflict.How Yemen’s War Economy Undermines Peace Efforts.Crime in Pieces: The Effects of Mexico’s “War on Drugs”, Explained.Rough Seas: Tracking Maritime Tensions with Iran.The Covid-19 Pandemic and Deadly Conflict.
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